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今天下午做完发表后,终于结束了来早稻田后的第一节课程。不知道这次能否拿个A。B是肯定没问题了。从选课开始,我的目标就是定在了能拿几个A上,并不是是否能合格。对于能否通过A course,我虽没100%的把握,但至少有这个信心吧。 看看上次发表的文章,距今也有半年了了。从进早大之前,到现在,觉得自己经历了不少起伏。刚进入时的惶恐,面对一切都是新鲜的事物,脑海里面是一片空白, 只知道一直督促自己要多看书。跑图书馆,上网查资料。每天的时间过得总是那么快。每天都在忙着作业,时间计划无法好好的执行。12月开始进入村田研究室 后,现在已经开始慢慢习惯每天早上来学校,晚上11点多回去,2点1线的生活了。几个月过去了,感觉最明显的就是自己的英文水平提高了很多。特别是听力。 这可能应该和环境有关系吧。因为大部分的课程都是用英文上的。早稻田的师资力量确实很强。不过倒很有意思,很多老师的英文发音是不敢恭维的。很多听起来就 像是在说他们的カタカナ。反过来,日语水平却是退步了很多。现在口语听力还行,单词和语法估计是忘记了不老少了。也没法了,现在的重点是英文了,日语暂且 放一边了。因为前阵子村田已经和我说明了,要我用英文写论文了。有机会带我去国际会议上去发表。很有挑战性。还好毕竟是在日本生活,口语方面倒是不会拉 下。我想只要基础在,复习下,恢复应该是很快的吧。说道英文,还得谢谢王强呢。现在都是用英文和这家伙聊天。要是没有这家伙,我还不是很大胆的去开口说 呢。对于他的要想学语言先学老外的思维方式倒也蛮赞成的。但是如果要深入提高自己的语言水平,这个方法就不大可以了,如果没有语法,词汇的支持,深入提高 应该是很难的。想想刚开始和enrique上情报试验的时候,组里就他一个是老外,和他解释的时候还基本上是在蹦单词,虽然我明白他在说什么和我想说什 么。到现在开始,在王强的带动下(虽然他的口语也不好),身边的朋友都开始尽量用英文交流了,大伙的英文水平都提高了。从心里谢谢他。并且佩服他的勇气。

对于王强,我和他在一些方面的观点还比较接近。除了勇气外,我更佩服他的自信。从小到大,一直认为自己在自信方面的把握不是很好。说好听叫一直都很自谦。 其实是有时候缺乏自信。做事情有的时候顾前顾后考虑了太多了。偏于稳重。这点已经慢慢固化到自己的脑子里面去了。已经开始慢慢在钝化自己的锐角了。让自己 已经慢慢失去年轻固有的激情了。不敢去冒险,去激进了。这和自己原有的性格很不一样。回过来看看这几年,刚毕业后到振云上班的时候,老同事排外的环境压力 逼得自己必须努力。工艺员的时候,除了琢磨如果提高自己的技术水平外,更重要的还是如何融入同事的圈子中。随着自己的工作被认可,自然而然地进入了同事 圈,并且开始晋升了。副科长,科长,经理,技术中心经理各个阶段,都是全公司最年轻的。随之而来,自信慢慢开始找到了,接着就变成了自负了,脾气开始变大 了,变暴躁了。

选择出国留学,原因有很多,我很少和别人说起,争取进早稻田或九大,学点东西,为了echo之类的。其实有一个很重要的原因就是逃避现实。自己想过了,在 振云6年了,已经是技术中心经理了,公司也从小公司到现在的集团企业,并且天天都在喊上市。(不知是否已经上市了?)。再在那里呆几年,会怎么样?分公司 的副总?虽然说这个可能性很高。但是问题是自己已经在心里面开始厌恶这个公司了。这种情况下,如何能够工作的下去。那时的选择还有2个,一个是林工已经表 明了,让2%的股份给我,要我去他公司上班。但同样在福州,并且是和振云有业务关系企业,在他公司和振云有什么区别。二是,和林斌一起另起炉灶,当时厂址 都已经选好了。呵呵,说道另起炉灶,还和林斌,陈教授一起到越南考察过呢。问题是资金在哪里?自己工作几年什么钱都没剩下,有时候也纳闷,自己无毒不沾, 平时也没乱花钱,为什么到头来,没多少钱剩下。于是乎,振云不想呆了,林斌那里也不愿去冒险,只好出国了。出国后到现在进入早稻田,来日的第一个目标已经 实现了,也算是一点安慰吧。

If you want to be a sucessful man, you must be aggressive and not worry about other people’s feelings. 那天看单词的时候,无意中看到这句话。贴到这里,以自勉吧。



Google Search Tips 2005

  Here are some search syntax basics and advanced tricks for Google.com. You might know most of these, but if you spot a new one, it may come in handy in future searches.

  A quote/ phrase search can be written with both quotations ["like this"] as well as a minus in-between words, [like-this].
Google didn’t always understand certain special characters like [#], but now they do; a search for [C#], for example, yields meaningful results (a few years ago, it didn’t). This doesn’t mean you can use just any character; e.g. entering [t.] and [t-] and [t^] will always return the same results.
Google allows 32 words within the search query (some years ago, only up to 10 were used, and Google ignored subsequent words). You rarely will need so many words in a single query – [just thinking of such a long query is a hard thing to do, as this query with twenty words shows] – however, it can come in handy for advanced searching… especially as a developer using the Google API.
You can find synonyms of words. E.g. when you search for [house] but you want to find “home” too, search for [~house]. To get to know which synonyms the Google database stores for individual words, simply use the minus operator to exclude synonym after synonym (they will always show as bold in the SERPs, the search engine result pages). Like this: [~house -house -home -housing -floor].
To see a really large page-count (possibly, the Google index size, though one can only speculate about that), search for [* *].
Google has a lesser known “numrange” operator which can be helpful. Using e.g. [2000..2005] (that’s two dots inbetween two numbers) will find 2000, 2001, 2002 and so on until 2005.
Google’s define-operator allows you to look up word definitions. For example, [define:css] yields “Short for Cascading Style Sheets” and many more explanations. You can trigger a somewhat “softer” version of the define-operator by entering “what is something”, e.g. [what is css].
Google has some exciting back-end AI to allow you to find just the facts upong entering simple questions or phrases like [when was Einstein born?] or [einstein birthday] (the answer to both of these queries is “Albert Einstein – Date of Birth: 14 March 1879”). This feature was introduced April this year and is called Google Q&A. (See some of the various working Q&A sample queries to get a feeling for what’s possible.)
Google allows you to find backlinks by using the link-operator, e.g. [link:blog.outer-court.com] for this blog. The new Google Blog Search supports this operator as well. In fact, when Google’s predecessor started out as Larry Page’s “BackRub” in the 1990s, finding backlinks was its only aim! However, not all backlinks are shown in Google today, at least not in web search. (It’s argued that Google does this on purpose to prevent reverse-engineering of its PageRank algorithm.)
Often when you enter a question mark at the end of the query, like when you type [why?], Google will advertise its pay-for-answer service Google Answers.
There a “sport” called Google Hacking. Basically, curious people try to find unsecure sites by entering specific, revealing phrases. A special web site called the Google Hacking Database is dedicated to listing these special queries.
Google searches for all of your words, whether or not you write a “+” before them (I often see people write queries [+like +this], but it’s not necessary). Unless, of course, you use Google’s or-operator. It’s an upper-case [OR] (lower-case won’t work and is simply searching for occurrences of the word “or”), and you can also use parentheses and the “|” character. [Hamlet (pizza | coke)] will find pages containing the word (or being linked to with the word) “Hamlet” and additionally containing at least one of the two other words, “pizza” or “coke”.
Not all Google services support the same syntax. Some services don’t allow everything Google web search allows you to enter (or at least, it won’t have any effect), and sometimes, you can even enter more than in web search (e.g. [insubject:test] in Google Groups). The easiest thing to find out about these operators is to simply use the advanced search and then check what ends up being written in the input box.
Sometimes, Google seems to understand “natural language” queries and shows you so-called “onebox” results. This happens for example when you enter [goog], [weather new york, ny], [new york ny] or [war of the worlds] (for this one, movie times, move rating and other information will show).
Not all Googles are the same! Depending on your location, Google will forward you to a different country-specific version of Google with potentially different results to the same query. A search for [site:stormfront.org] from the US will yield hundreds of thousands of results, whereas the same search from Germany (at least if you don’t change the default redirect to Google.de) returns… zilch. Yes, Google does at times agree to country-specific censorship, like in Germany, France (Google web search), or China (Google News).
Sometimes, Google warns you about its results, especially when they might seem like promoting hate sites (of course, only someone misunderstanding how Google works could think it’s them promoting hate sites). Enter [jew], and you will see a Google-sponsored link titled “Offensive Search Results” leading to this explanation.
For some search queries, Google uses its own ads to offer jobs. Try entering [work at Google] and take a look at the right-hand advertisement titled e.g. “Work at Google Europe” (it turns out, at the moment, Google Switzerland is hiring).
For some of the more popular “Googlebombed” results, like when you enter [failure] and the first hit is the biography of George W. Bush, Google displays explanatory ads titled “Why these results?”.
While Google doesn’t do real Natural Language Processing yet, this is the ultimate goal for them and other search engines. A little What-If Video [WMV] illustrates how this could be useful in the future.
Some say that whoever turns up first for the search query [president of the internet] is, well, the President of the internet. (I’m applying as well, and you can feel free to support me with this logo.)
Google doesn’t have “stop words” anymore. Stop words traditionally are words like [the], [or] and similar which search engines tended to ignore. Sometimes, when you enter e.g. [to be or not to be], Google even decides to show some phrase search results in the middle of the page (separated by a line and information that these are phrase search results).
There once was an easter-egg in the Google Calculator that made Google show “42” when you entered [The Answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything]. If I’m not mistaken, this feature has disappeared and now displays a more reasonable (but less funny) definition of the concept of Douglas Adams’ galactical joke. As I’ve been alerted in the forum, the easter egg only works lower-case.
You can use the wildcard operator in phrases. This is helpful for finding song texts – let’s say you forgot a word or two, but you remember the gist, as in ["love you twice as much * oh love * *"] – and similar tasks.
You can use the wildcard character without searching for anything specific at all, as in this phrase search: ["* * * * * * *"].
Even though www.googl.com is nothing but a “typosquatter” (someone reserving a domain name containing a popular misspelling) and search queries return very different results than Google, the site is still getting paid by Google – because it uses Google AdSense.
If you feel like restricting your search to university servers, you can write e.g. [c-tutorial site:.edu] to only search on the “edu” domain (you can also use Google Scholar). This works for country-domains like “de” or “it” as well.

今天上interface design的时候,老师出了这个问题,网上找到一篇介绍文章转摘如下。

什么是URI
Web上可用的每种资源 – HTML文档、图像、视频片段、程序等 – 由一个通过通
用资源标志符(Universal Resource Identifier, 简称”URI”)进行定位。

URI一般由三部分组成:

访问资源的命名机制。
存放资源的主机名。
资源自身的名称,由路径表示。
考虑下面的URI,它表示了当前的HTML 4.0规范:

http://www.webmonkey.com.cn/html/html40/

这个URI是这样的:这是一个可通过HTTP协议访问的资源,位于主
机www.webmonkey.com.cn上,通过路径“/html/html40”访问。在HTML文档中
其它资源包括”mailto”(收发email)和”ftp”(FTP访问)。

这是URI的另一个例子,指向一个用户的邮箱:

Joe Cool

注:大多数读者可能熟悉”URL”,而不是URI。URL是RUI命名机制的一个子集。

2.1.2 片段标志符
有的URI指向一个资源的内部。 这种URI以”#”结束,并跟着一个anchor标志
符(称为片段标志符)。例如,下面是一个指向section_2的URI:

http://somesite.com/html/top.htm#section_2

2.1.3 相对URI
相对URI 不包含任何命名规范信息。它的路径通常指同一台机器上的资源。相
对URI可能含有相对路径(如,“..”表示上一层路径),还可能包含片段标
志符。

为了说明相对URI,假设我们有一个基本的URI
“http://www.acme.com/support/intro.htm”。下面的链接中使用了相对URI:

Suppliers

它扩展成完全的URI就是 “http://www.acme.com/support/suppliers.htm”,
下面是一个图像的相对URI:

logo

它扩展成完全的URI就是 “http://www.acme.com/icons/logo.gif”。

在HTML中,URI被用来:

链接到另一个文档或资源(参看A和LINK元素)。
链接到一个外部样式表或脚本(参看LINK和SCRIPT元素)。
在页内包含图像、对象或applet(参看IMAG、OBJECT、APPLET和INPUT
元素)。
建立图像映射(参看MAP和AREA元素)。
提交一个表单(参看FORM)。
建立一个框架文档(参看FRAME和IFRAME元素)。
引用一个外部参考(参看Q、BLOCKQUOTE, INS和DEL元素)。
指向一个描述文档的metadata(参看HEAD元素)。

URL:
URL 是Uniform Resource Location的缩写,译为“统一资源定位符”。通俗地说,URL是Internet上用来描述信息资源的字符串,主要用在各种WWW客户程序和服务器 程序上,特别是著名的Mosaic。采用URL可以用一种统一的格式来描述各种信息资源,包括文件、服务器的地址和目录等。

◇ URL的格式

URL的格式由下列三部分组成:

第一部分是协议(或称为服务方式);
第二部分是存有该资源的主机IP地址(有时也包括端口号);
第三部分是主机资源的具体地址。,如目录和文件名等。
第一部分和第二部分之间用“://”符号隔开,第二部分和第三部分用“/”符号隔开。第一部分和第二部分是不可缺少的,第三部分有时可以省略。

◇ URL示例

文件的URL:
用URL表示文件时,服务器方式用file表示,后面要有主机IP地址、文件的存取路径(即目录)和文件名等信息。有时可以省略目录和文件名,但“/”符号不能省略。
例一:file://ftp.yoyodyne.com/pub/files/foobar.txt
代表存放主机ftp.yoyodyne.com上的pub/files/目录下的一个文件,文件名是foobar.txt。
例二:file://ftp.yoyodyne.com/pub
代表主机ftp.yoyodyne.com上的目录/pub。
例三:file://ftp.yoyodyne.com/
代表主机ftp.yoyodyne.com上的根目录。

Gopher的URL:
Gopher服务器有可能使用特殊的端口,在这种情况下,主机IP地址与端口之间要用“:隔开。
例一:gopher://gopher.yoyodyne.com/
表示主机gopher.yoyodyne.com上的gopher服务器。
例二:gopher://gopher.banzai.edu:1234
表示主机gopher.banzai.edu上的gopher服务器,在端口1234上。

网络新闻的URL:
利用URL表示网络新闻组时,如果是usenet的话只要指定出新闻组的名字即可。
例如:news:rec.gardening
表示usenet上的rec.gardening新闻组(园艺)。

HTTP的 URL:
使用超级文本传输协议HTTP,提供超级文本信息服务的资源。
例一:http://www.peopledaily.com.cn/channel/welcome.htm
其计算机域名为www.peopledaily.com.cn。超级文本文件(文件类型为.html)是在目录/channel下的welcome.htm。这是中国人民日报的一台计算机。
例二:http://www.rol.cn.net/talk/talk1.htm
其其计算机域名为www.rol.cn.net。超级文本文件(文件类型为.html)是在目录/talk下的talk1.htm。这是瑞得聊天室的地址,可由此进入瑞得聊天室的第1室。

◇ URL的缺点

最 大的缺点:当信息资源的存放地点发生变化时,必须对URL作相应的改变。因此人们正在研究新的信息资源表示方法,例如:URI(Universal Resource Identifier)即“通用资源标识”(参见RFC 1630)、URN(Uniform Resource Name)即“统一资源名”和URC(Uniform Resource Citation)即“统一资源引用符”等。

IT用語辞典 e-words:

URI 

読み方 ユーアールアイ
フルスペル Uniform Resource Identifier

インターネット上に存在する情報資源の場所を指し示す記述方式。インターネットにおける情報の「住所」にあたる。URIは包括的な概念であり、現在インターネットで広く用いられているURLはURIの機能の一部を具体的に仕様化したものである。

URL 

読み方 ユーアールエル
フルスペル Uniform Resource Locator

インターネット上に存在する情報資源(文書や画像など)の場所を指し示す記述方式。インターネットにおける情報の「住所」にあたる。情報の種類やサーバ名、ポート番号フォルダ名、ファイル名などで構成される。

Continuing…

Right Supply Chain for your product

1st Step:
Determine the nature of your product
Functional v.s. Innovative:
◆ Functional products: Stable predictable demand & long life cycles
Ex.) Staples, Detergent, Long lead time steel
◆ Innovative products: Unpredictable & short life cycle
Ex.) High Fashion, Entirely New Electronic devices.

Correlation Between nature of products and other Attributes

Attributes Functional Innovative
Product Lifecycle > 2 years 3 months. to 1 year
Product margin Low High
Avg. forecast error 10% 40%~100%
Avg. stockout rate 1%~2% 10%~40%
Avg. forced season- 0% 10%~25%
end markdown

2nd Step:
Determin Structure of the Supply Chain
Supply Chain Strategy Fitting

Factors related to Respondsiveness v.s. Efficiency
Responsiveness Efficiency
Primary Purpose
Respond quickly Lowest possible cost
Manuf. Focus Deploy excess capacity High utilization
Inventory Strategy Deploy significant Generate high tums
Buffer or safety stock
Lead time Focus Invest in order to decrease Shorten if no cost increase
Supplier Selection Speed, Flexibility, Quality Price and Quality
Product Desigh Modular Design Minimize Cost, High
Postponement Performance

Example
Supply Chain Types & Design Requirements

Factor Efficient Supply Chains ResponsiveSupply Chains
Operations
strategy
Make-to-stock or
standardized services;
emphasize high volume,
standardized products,
or services
Build-to-order,make-to-order,
or customized services; emphasize
product or service variety
Capacity
cushion
Low High
Inventory
investment
Low; enable high
inventory turns
As needed to enable fast
delivery time
Lead time Shorten, but do not
increase costs
Shorten aggressively
Supplier
selection
Emphasize low prices;
consistent quality;
on-time delivery
Emphaseize fast delivery time;
customization; volume flexibility;
High-performance desigh quality

3rd Step:Positioning your supply chain

Functional Products Innovative Products
Efficiency Supply Chain Match Mismatch
Responsive Supply Chain Mismatch Match

Other Supply Chain Design Factors

Location
Transportaion and logistics
Inventory and forecasting
Marketing and channel restructing
Sourcing and supplier selection
Information and electronic mediated environments
Product design and new product introduction
Service and after sales support
Reverse logistics and green issues
Outsourcing and strategy alliances
Metrics and incentives
Global issues

Supply chain network design (1)

(Ex.) National Semiconductor’s facility network:
Production:

Produces chips in six different locations: four in the US, one in Britain and one in Israel. Chips are shipped to seven assembly locations in Southeast Asia.
Distribution:
The final product is shipped to hundreds of facilities all over the world.
20,000 different routes, 12 different airlines are involved, 95% of the products are delivered within 45 days, 5% are delivered within 90 days.

Cost – Responsiveness Efficiency Frontier

Supply chain network design (2)
Logistics Cost related Trade-offs

Supply chain network design(3)
Logistics Costs and Required Respones Time

Supply chain integration (1)

Integration involves:
◆ Functional Integration (of purchasing, manufacturing, transportation, warehousing)
◆ Spatial Integration (across geographically dispersed vendors, facilities, markets)
◆ Hierarchical Planning (coherence and consistency among overlapping supply chain decisions at various levels of planning)

Supply chain integration (2)
Process integration : Cycle view

Supply chain integration (3)

Information Sharing & Decision support
Need for information technology & system
Intra-firm information systems;
Warehouse management systems;
Transportation management systems;
Intranet/Extranet;
MRP/ERP systems;
CRM systems.
MRP: material requirement planning, ERP: enterprise resource planning, CRM: customer relationship management.

Decision making in supply chain (1)
Strategic level decision – (long term)
Location, capacity, new product development, technology management, modes of transportation.
Scale: Years.
Tactical level decision – (medium term)
Inventory policies, distribution channel, resource and product allocation, subcontracting, promotion.
Scale: Month – year.
Operational level decision – (short term)
Scheduling, vehicle assignments and routing, sourcing and production orders.
Scale: Minute, hour and days.

Decision making in supply chain (2)

Information system in SCM
◆ Plan driven production management
(1) Master planning system MPS
(2) Material requirement planning MRP
(3) Capacity requirement plaining CRP

◆ Demand driven production management
(1) Forecast / Demand planning
(2) Distribution requirement planning DRP
(3) Production planning & scheduling
(4) Fulfilment planning

Supply chain management function MAP

Information system fuction MAP

Supply chain collaboration

□ Cometitive model
Cost in chain are assumed fixed, and manufacturer and retailer compete through price negotiation
□ Cooperative model
Cooperate to cut costs throughout the chain. Each company in the SC, has a part in the establishment of the price, quality and customer satisfaction aspects.
□ Inter-and intra-company integration is essential.
□ Building synergies by integrating business functions, departments and companies.

Internet – Enabled suppy chain

Business to business (B2B)
Product ordering
Sharing product information
Creating display space
Defining customer information
Co-developing products
Business to customer (B2C)
Sharing packing, shipping, inventory, product movement trends and forecasts with the supply chain partners.

Continuous…

Category of industry (or products) that especially needs SCM
1) many sort and small amount production
2) products which need wide area logistic networks
3) large temporal fluctuation of demand change
4) short lifecycle products

Types of Supply Chains

(1) Push vs. Pull

A simple supply chain
A——-B A: Manufacturer B: Finished Goods Inventory (FGI) Buffer

Push system: Completed A products are sent (pushed) to B regardless of system condition.
Pull system: Removal of a product from the finished goods buffer signals the execution of inventory change, and trigger the execution of supply from A.

The production and distribution decisions with Push or Pull strategies
◆ Push supply chains:
Long term forecasts
More time to react to changing market place
Bullwhip effect
◆ Pull supply chains:
Demand driven
Elimination of inventory, reduction of bullwhip effect and increased service levels
Difficult to keep service level for longer lead time

Bullwhip Effect in push type SCM

Procter and Gamble, manufacturers Pampers
The supply chain for Pampers is broadly as follows:

Suppliers—Manufacture—Distributer—Retailer—Customer
The following demand curves are observed in PG’s supply chain:

Production Distribution Models

Push-Pull Supply Chain:
Hybrid of the Push & Pull systems
Initial stages – Push-based strategy
Final stages – Pull-based strategy
The push part – where long-term forecasts have small uncertainty and variability.
The pull part – where uncertainty and variability are high

Types of Supply Chains (2)

Lean supply chain (LSC):
Lean supply chain employs lean production and time compression in paralled. Not adapatable to future market requirements.

Agile supply chain (ASC):
Agile supply chain responds to unpredictable market changes and capitalizes on them and exploits a dynamic type of alliance known as a “virtual organization”. A virtual organization is the integration of core competencies distributed among a number of carefully chosen but real organizations.

Hybrid supply chain (HSC):
A hybrid supply chain helps to achieve mass customization by postponing product differentiation until final assembly. The lean supply chain is utilized for component productions. The agile part of the chain establishes a company-market interface to understand and satisfy requirements by being responsive and innovative.

What Makes SCM Difficult?

Variations Over Time
Environment changes over time
Conflicts
Achieving Global Optiimization vs. Local Optimization
Minimizing the cost and maximizing the service level is frequently a difficult task for a single facility. SCM tries to optimize these globally.
Uncertainty
Customer demand can never be forecasted exactlly, travel times will never be certain, machines and vehicles will breakdown.

Variations Over Time
Supply Chain evolves over time.
Customer demand and supplier capatilities change over time. Cumstomer-supplier relationship changes over time (customer power increases, …etc.)
Seasonality
Competitors pricing strategies
Advertising and Promotions
Promotions destroy the simplicity of a predictable demand for a good product at a reasonable price.

Conflicting Objectives in the Supply Chain

1. Puurchasing
◆ Stable volume requirements
◆ Flexible delivery time
◆ Little variation in mix
◆ Large quantities

2. Manufacturing
◆ Long run production
◆ High quality
◆ High productivity
◆ Low production cost

3. Warehousing
◆ Low inventory
◆ Reduced transportation costs
◆ Quick replenishment capability

4. Customers
◆ Short order lead time
◆ High in stock
◆ Enormous variety of products
◆ Low prices

Uncertainty (examples)
Compaq computer estimates it lost $500 million to $1 billion in sales in 1995 because its laptops and desktops were not available when and where customers were ready to buy them.
Boeing Aircraft, one of America’s leading capital goods producers, was forced to announce write downs of $2.6 billion in October 1997. The reason? “Raw material shortages, internal and supplier parts shortages…” (Wall Street Journal, Oct. 23. 1997)

Uncertainty in Supply Chain
◆ Demand uncertainty: uncertainty of customer demand for a product
◆ Implied demand uncertainty:
the uncertainty that exists due to the portion of the demand the supply chain must handle and attributes the customer desires.
ex.) Firms, which sell same products to different customer segments who have different attributes face a different implied demand uncertainty (parts for manufacturing or maintenance, personal use or business use, etc.)

Impact of Customer Needs on Demand Uncertainty

Customer Need Causes implied demand uncertainty to increase
Range of quantity increases Wider range of quantity implies greater variance in demand
Lead time decreases Less time to react to orders
Variety of products required increases Demand per product becomes more disaggregated
Number of channels increases Total customer demand is now disaggregated over more channels
Rate of innovation increases New products tend to have more uncertain demand
Required service level increases Firm now has to handle unusual surges in demand

Supply Chain Challenges

Achieving Global Optimization under:
Conflicting Objectives
Complex network of factilities
System Variations over time

Managing Uncertainty
Matching Supply and Demand
Demand is not the only source of uncertainty (delivery lead times, component availability, machine breakdowns, natural disasters…etc.)

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